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When will the recovery begin? Suzanne Deffree, Electronic News Optimistically, but realistically, Gartner Inc has reported that although excess inventories have been reduced and a first bottoming in some parts of the electronics markets has provided a stabilizing influence, the equipment markets will most likely not begin their recovery until Q4 of this year. The market research company is basing its estimate on the latest macroeconomic forecasts and industry supply and inventory patterns. Gartner cautioned that uncertainty still lingers as to macroeconomic recovery and the effectiveness of government stimulus packages. "Almost all sectors of the electronic equipment market are still declining," Klaus Rinnen and Jim Tully, Gartner analysts, wrote in the company's Semiconductor DQ Monday Report this morning. "Markets must hit bottom before we see a rebound to positive growth. This whole rebounding process will occur over a period of almost two years." Tully and Rinnen noted that while the PC market is already reaching the bottom of its growth pattern, most other electronics segments will not reach bottom until the second half of 2009. "The bottoming of PC-related production is breathing the first signs of hope into the electronics supply chain. Still, the majority of the industry will not bottom until the third quarter of 2009," they said. "During this period, uncertainty will remain high, and visibility will be obscured. An improving global economic environment should enable the electronics industry to enter into a sustainable recovery in the second half of 2010, allowing a reacceleration in sales in 2011." The analysts said that the first signs of growth will be led by seasonal buying patterns in the PC market during Q4 and that other sectors will not begin to show growth until 2010. Gartner anticipates the first sector to show sustainable recovery will be mobile phones, with that recovery beginning in Q2 2010. Further, the analysts warned that while it is less likely, overall sustainable growth could be pushed into 2011. "We do not expect associated semiconductor sales to regain the 2007 peak sales levels during the current five-year forecast period," Tully and Rinnen said. "Vendors with the most-credible response plans to these patterns of recovery will be the ones that leave this downturn as winners. The analysts believe that damage from the current industry recession will not be soon forgotten. Indeed, Gartner's current five-year semiconductor revenue forecast does not show recovery to the 2007 level during the forecast period. "The industry must consider and prepare itself for significant changes in consumer buying behavior, technology demand patterns, and a changed supplier landscape," Tully and Rinnen said. "The current recession is pushing many suppliers to the brink of ruin and several will not survive. While the emerging supply chain will be leaner and stronger, it will look different. And while it reshapes to the new market realities, industry participants are exposed to considerable vendor vulnerability. Awareness of risk both up and down the supply chain is a must for industry players to maximize their opportunities." The Gartner analysts concluded that in the near term, "careful attention must be given to the expected recovery pattern of each sector, and a response must be planned. Those vendors with the most-credible response to these patterns will be the ones that leave this downturn as winners."